Metros Remain Fierce Battlegrounds as SA Moves Closer to November 4 polls

South Africa's eight metropolitan municipalities could end up without a clear winner after the November 4 local government elections resulting in coalition governments in, an Ipsos poll found.

It further states that voter apathy remains high this election cycle, an indicator that will undoubtedly kick political hopefuls in top gear to gain the trust of those on the fence.

“Some of the fiercest contestations are likely to take place in the country's metropolitan municipalities. The proportions of registered voters who currently indicate that they will not vote in the Local Government Elections are therefore particularly relevant to prospective councillors and political parties,” the research found.

Mari Harris, a Political Analyst at Ipsos in South Africa, said it is especially notable that there is no single metropolitan story unfolding across South Africa.

“Different parties are competing from very different positions of strength depending on the locality. While some cities appear to head for closely contested ANC-DA races, others show strong support for regional or smaller parties.

"Currently, only the Umkhonto Wesizwe Party shows a strong dominant position in eThekwini, suggesting that many metros are headed for coalition governments.

"This makes the coalition discussions after the elections and the choice of coalition partners of vital importance for the functioning of local government in South Africa and the delivery of basic services to citizens,” Harris said.

The Ipsos methodology

The research, titled Key metros remain battlegrounds ahead of the November Local Government Elections, was sampled between June and July on 3 600 randomly selected South Africans from all provinces, settlement types and backgrounds.

The results are weighted and projected to the population of South Africans aged 18 years and older who are eligible to vote. The analysis of the released research report focussed on the 70% (2 520) respondents who indicated that they were registered voters with the IEC.

Of the 70%, 33% was very interested in politics and elections, another 33% somewhat interested while 34% was not very interested.

Interest in politics, the research found, did not always translate into participation on election day. However, when asked how likely they were to vote in the upcoming Local Government Elections, about three-quarters of registered voters indicated that they were either likely or very likely to cast their ballots.

Asked about the likelihood of voting on November 4, 33% were very likely to vote, 43% likely, 13% not likely with 10% not likely at all while there was a 1% that could be converted.

Registered voters were presented with an electronic ballot paper and asked to indicate their preferred political party themselves. Several respondents decided not to answer this question and/ or indicated that they would not vote in the Local Government Elections. These potential stay-away voters are important to consider, particularly as their proportions differ markedly across provinces and metropolitan municipalities.

Eastern Cape

In the Eastern Cape, 77% of the respondents participated in choosing a party while the remaining 23% said they will not vote.

In Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality (NMBMM) 87% chose a party with 13% opting not to vote. Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality (BCMM) had 74% of the participants chose their political parties on the electronic ballot paper with 26% abstaining.

The research discovered that voting intentions in South Africa's major metropolitan municipalities reveal a highly competitive electoral landscape, highlighting the very different political dynamics unfolding across the country's largest urban centres.